Analysis of Competing Hypotheses work kit

Compare plausible explanations without merely confirming a favorite.

Evaluation pending. This kit cannot be purchased.

Planned deliverables

• Hypothesis list
• Evidence-source matrix
• Disconfirming observation
• Source-linked analysis and limitations
• Validation checklist and handoff

Before you start

• A defined decision and success criteria
• Access to relevant public sources
• Customer-authorized research tools

Evidence and limits

• Heuer, Psychology of Intelligence Analysis

• Consistency is not proof; missing observations cannot be scored as contrary evidence.

GPT-6 Astra, Claude Fable 5.1 and Grok 4.6: documented compatibility; behavioral validation pending. No measured quality or token advantage is claimed.

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