Analysis of Competing Hypotheses

Compare plausible explanations without merely confirming a favorite.

Procedure

• List competing explanations before selecting one.
• Cross evidence against every explanation, marking inconsistency and unknowns.
• Prioritize diagnostic evidence; remove redundant support.
• Test sensitivity and record observations that would change the conclusion.

Questions

• What observation would contradict the preferred explanation?
• Does this evidence distinguish the alternatives?

Evidence to collect

• Hypothesis list
• Evidence-source matrix
• Disconfirming observation

Limits

• Consistency is not proof; missing observations cannot be scored as contrary evidence.

Sources

• Heuer, Psychology of Intelligence Analysis: Printed pages 95-97, chapter 8

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