Premortem
Find preventable failure before committing to a plan.
Procedure
- Define the decision, deadline, and measurable failure.
- Assume the plan failed; independently list plausible causes.
- Rank causes by impact, evidence, and controllability.
- Assign prevention, warning indicators, and a stop condition.
Questions
- What failure would surprise the plan owner?
- Which warning arrives early enough to act?
Evidence to collect
- Failure definition
- Risk owner
- Observable leading indicator
Limits
- Imagined failures are hypotheses, not incident evidence.
Sources
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