Key Assumptions Check

Expose dependencies hidden inside a confident plan.

Procedure

• List what must be true for the plan to work.
• Separate verified facts, inferences, and unresolved assumptions.
• Rank assumptions by consequence if false and weakness of evidence.
• Assign a test, owner, review date, and action if false.

Questions

• What are we treating as certain without evidence?
• Which failed assumption changes the decision?

Evidence to collect

• Assumption register
• Source quality
• Falsification test

Limits

• Confidence labels must describe evidence, not substitute for it.

Sources

• CIA, A Tradecraft Primer: Key Assumptions Check, printed pages 7-9

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